CoinEx Research January 2026 Report: A Perfect Storm of Macro Headwinds

HONG KONG, Feb. 11, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- CoinEx Research’s January 2026 Report: In the opening salvo of 2026, cryptocurrency markets faced a barrage of challenges, from geopolitical upheavals to monetary policy shifts. CoinEx Research's latest monthly report dives into the turmoil that saw Bitcoin drop 11% to around $79,000, amid $1.6 billion in U.S. spot ETF outflows. Yet, beneath the surface, innovations in the AI agent economy—highlighted by x402 V2 and ERC-8004—signal potential for a transformative application-layer surge.

Risk-Off Reset to Open the Year

The year kicked off with guarded optimism for Bitcoin, which briefly touched $95,000 mid-month. But by January's end, aggressive selling drove it to $79,000, an 11% decline, with intraday lows hitting $74,000. U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs exacerbated the mood, posting $1.6 billion in net outflows—following December 2025's $1 billion drain. Bitcoin now trades below ETF investors' average cost, near mining breakeven, and close to MicroStrategy's $76,000 average buy-in, pressuring digital asset treasury firms. However, a strong interest in $68,000–$70,000 put options hints at buyer support at those levels.

Geopolitical Flashpoints: Venezuela, Greenland, and Iran

Global tensions escalated dramatically. On January 3, U.S. forces executed "Operation Resolve," capturing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and taking control of the nation's oil sector. President Trump then threatened to annex Greenland forcibly for minerals and security, reversing tariffs on NATO ally Denmark and straining alliances. Meanwhile, Iran's anti-regime protests entered their second week, with Trump vowing U.S. intervention if violence erupted.

Markets shrugged initially: equities held steady, gold and oil spiked 7-8%, then retreated. Crypto, too, stayed tied to liquidity rather than geopolitics—until the week's end selloff hit all risk assets. CoinEx analysts note that Trump-era volatility has become normalized, viewed as ongoing noise rather than shocks.

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Fed Rate Pause and the Warsh Nomination

The Fed kept rates at 3.5%-3.75% on January 28, after 2025's cuts, with markets eyeing two more in 2026. But Trump's nomination of hawkish Kevin Warsh as next Fed Chair—succeeding Jerome Powell in May—sparked chaos. Warsh's inflation focus triggered a dollar surge, yield spikes, and widespread risk-asset dumps, including crypto.

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Japan’s Bond Rebellion: A Hidden Headwind for Bitcoin

Japan's bond market erupted, with 40-year yields hitting a record 4.24% on January 20—the first breach of 4% in decades. This reflects eroding faith in the Bank of Japan's tightening amid fiscal expansion under Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. As yields rise, Japanese investors repatriate funds from U.S. Treasuries, shrinking global liquidity and creating crypto headwinds via competition from 4%+ risk-free returns.

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Key Charts to Watch

$BTC: Rebound Fails at $98,000 Resistance; Deep Correction to $75,000 Support

After stabilizing at $84,000, BTC tested $98,000 and EMA resistance but faltered, dropping below $84,000 toward $75,000. CoinEx remains cautious, seeing no bullish reversal signs.

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$HYPE: Stabilizing Against the Trend

$HYPE rebounded from a four-month dip, rising from $20.5 to $34.6. With bearish news priced in and solid fundamentals, it held EMA support amid market woes. If BTC stabilizes, $HYPE could shine.

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The Precious Metals FOMO and Meltdown

Precious metals boomed then busted. Silver soared from $30 in 2025 to $120, gold from $2,700 to $5,600, fueled by debasement fears and speculation. But on January 30, silver crashed 38% to below $75—its worst day since 1980—while gold fell 11-12% to $4,900. The Warsh nomination and dollar rally ignited leveraged liquidations, spilling into crypto as investors deleveraged.

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x402 Status: Commercial Pivot & Public Chain Reshuffling

x402 V2 transforms from a Base experiment to a universal AI agent infrastructure.

Key V2 Upgrades:

Credit Layer (BNPL): Deferred settlements via "bookkeeping," sparking agent credit derivatives.
Multi-chain by Default: HTTP standards unify Solana, Ethereum, and L2s.
Hybrid Rails: Crypto-to-fiat bridging, easing Web2 adoption (e.g., USDC payments to AWS in fiat).

On-Chain Insights: Solana’s Surge

Post-November 2025 peak, the sector cools but reshuffles: Solana overtakes Base in transactions for agent efficiency. Top players: Solana's Dexter AI ($DEXTER-backed LLM proxy); Base's Virtuals Protocol (M2M gateway). Wash trading drops; volumes shift to genuine testing.

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ERC-8004 Launch: Completing the "Trust" Puzzle

Launched January 30 on Ethereum, ERC-8004—proposed by Coinbase's Erik Reppel, EF's Davide Crapis, and others—builds agent trust via verifiable identities and reputations, curbing defaults. Paired with x402's payments, it forms a "Passport & Credit Score" system. CoinEx sees this duo paving the way from infra hype to app breakthroughs.

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Stablecoin Outflow: Market May Confirm Transition to Bear Territory

January saw $7 billion in stablecoin outflows—the first since September 2023. This signals deep bear risks; persistent drains could lock in a half-year downturn.

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About CoinEx

Established in 2017, CoinEx is an award-winning cryptocurrency exchange designed with users in mind. Since its launch by the industry-leading mining pool ViaBTC, the platform has been one of the earliest crypto exchanges to release proof-of-reserves to protect 100% of user assets. CoinEx provides over 1400 coins, supported by professional-grade features and services, for its 10+ million users across 200+ countries and regions. CoinEx is also home to its native token, CET, incentivizing user activities while empowering its ecosystem.

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